《中国能源》杂志社 ENERGY OF CHINA

甘肃省产业结构与能源消费关系研究——基于 VAR 模型
唐雯    来源:中国能源杂志社    时间:2021-05-28
摘要:基于2005~2019年的数据,运用向量自回归模型(VAR)对甘肃产业结构与能源消费的相关关系,进行了实证研究。研究发现,2014年以后甘肃产业结构不断优化,并呈现“三二一”的特点,一次能源消费中煤炭消费量的占比一直高于50%,天然气的消费量总体呈现递增趋势,第二产业能源消费占比高达70%左右;其产业结构与能源消费呈长期稳定关系,能源消费对产业结构升级的贡献度,大于产业结构升级对能源消费的贡献度。因此,甘肃应该抓住“碳达峰、碳中和”的有利时机,利用全省风、光自然资源的绝对优势,加强新能源领域技术创新,进一步调整能源生产结构和消费结构。将扩大新能源外输,作为甘肃“十四五”能源产值的增长点。通过发展数字、碳交易和低碳产业,优化二产结构,提高绿色产业增加值在二产增加值中的比重,通过全社会节能减排,实现“碳达峰、碳中和”。

关键词:甘肃;产业结构;能源消费;碳达峰;VAR 模型

作者简介:唐雯,女,甘肃武威人,硕士研究生,研究方向为产业经济、农林经济管理。

Abstract: Based on the data of Gansu Province from 2005 to 2019, this paper uses vector autoregressive model (VAR) to conduct an empirical study on the correlation between industrial structure and energy consumption in Gansu. The research found that after 2014, the industrial structure of Gansu Province has been continuously optimized, showing the characteristics of “three, two and one”. In the primary energy consumption, coal consumption accounts for more than 50%, while natural gas energy consumption shows an upward trend. Gansu’s secondary industry accounts for about 70 percent of energy consumption. There is a long-term and stable relationship between industrial structure and energy consumption in Gansu. The contribution of energy consumption to industrial structure upgrading is higher than that of industrial structure upgrading to energy consumption. Therefore, Gansu Province should seize the favorable opportunity of carbon peak and carbon neutral, make use of the absolute advantage of wind and solar resources in the province to strengthen technological innovation in the field of new energy, and further adjust the structure of energy production and consumption. Expand new energy export and take it as the growth point of energy output in Gansu Province during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. By developing digital industry, carbon trading industry and low carbon industry, modify the secondary industry, enhance the ratio of the value added of green industry in value added by the secondary industry, and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality through energy conservation and emission reduction of the whole society.
Key words: Gansu Province; Industrial Structure; Energy Consumption; Carbon up to Peak; The VAR Model


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